Depuis son retour au pouvoir en janvier 2025, Donald Trump a relanc\u00e9 avec vigueur sa doctrine \u00ab America First \u00bb, d\u00e9sormais assum\u00e9e comme une strat\u00e9gie de rupture commerciale globale. Le 10 f\u00e9vrier, il a instaur\u00e9 une taxe universelle de 10 \u00e0 20 % sur toutes les importations, justifi\u00e9e par des \u00ab menaces exceptionnelles \u00bb contre la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale. Le 28 mai, la Cour du commerce international des \u00c9tats-Unis a pourtant jug\u00e9 ces mesures ill\u00e9gales, estimant qu’elles exc\u00e9daient le cadre de l\u2019International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Saisie en appel, une cour f\u00e9d\u00e9rale a temporairement suspendu cette d\u00e9cision, cr\u00e9ant une ins\u00e9curit\u00e9 juridique durable pour les entreprises am\u00e9ricaines.
Dans la foul\u00e9e, le pr\u00e9sident a menac\u00e9 d’imposer jusqu\u2019\u00e0 50 % de droits de douane sur les produits europ\u00e9ens, notamment les automobiles allemandes, et 25 % sur les smartphones fabriqu\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9tranger, visant directement des groupes comme Apple ou Samsung. Ces annonces, largement relay\u00e9es dans la presse europ\u00e9enne, ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9nonc\u00e9es par le commissaire europ\u00e9en Maro\u0161 \u0160ef\u010dovi\u010d comme des \u00ab actes hostiles \u00bb incompatibles avec les r\u00e8gles de l\u2019OMC.
Sur le plan \u00e9conomique, les effets sont spectaculaires. Les importations am\u00e9ricaines en provenance de Chine ont chut\u00e9 de pr\u00e8s de 90 % au premier trimestre 2025, selon les donn\u00e9es du CEPR. Le co\u00fbt pour les entreprises am\u00e9ricaines est estim\u00e9 \u00e0 plus de 118 milliards de dollars en pertes nettes depuis janvier, notamment dans les secteurs de la tech, de l\u2019agroalimentaire et de la distribution. L\u2019incertitude pesant sur les cha\u00eenes d\u2019approvisionnement mondiales pousse de nombreuses PME \u00e0 geler leurs investissements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Face \u00e0 cette offensive unilat\u00e9rale, les grandes puissances \u00e9conomiques r\u00e9agissent. L\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne a relanc\u00e9 en mai ses n\u00e9gociations commerciales avec l\u2019Inde, esp\u00e9rant conclure un accord de libre-\u00e9change d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. De son c\u00f4t\u00e9, le Japon a renforc\u00e9 ses liens avec le Royaume-Uni post-Brexit, tandis que l\u2019Australie explore de nouveaux corridors commerciaux avec l\u2019Asie du Sud-Est.
L\u2019Asie, justement, s\u2019affirme comme le principal laboratoire d\u2019un commerce post-am\u00e9ricain. Le RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), regroupant 15 pays d\u2019Asie-Pacifique, s\u2019active \u00e0 harmoniser ses r\u00e8gles tarifaires internes et \u00e0 r\u00e9duire sa d\u00e9pendance au dollar dans ses \u00e9changes intra-zone. La Chine, en parall\u00e8le, acc\u00e9l\u00e8re ses efforts de \u00ab d\u00e9couplage strat\u00e9gique \u00bb vis-\u00e0-vis des \u00c9tats-Unis, soutenant sa production nationale de semi-conducteurs, tout en consolidant ses exportations vers l\u2019Afrique et l\u2019Am\u00e9rique latine.
Cette dynamique ouvre la voie \u00e0 une r\u00e9gionalisation acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e du commerce mondial. Ce n\u2019est plus seulement l\u2019ordre multilat\u00e9ral issu de Bretton Woods qui vacille : c\u2019est l\u2019id\u00e9e m\u00eame d\u2019un march\u00e9 mondial unique, r\u00e9gi par un droit commun. \u00c0 la place, se dessinent des blocs g\u00e9o\u00e9conomiques concurrents, chacun align\u00e9 sur ses propres normes, monnaies et priorit\u00e9s diplomatiques.
Dans ce contexte, l\u2019Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) peine \u00e0 jouer son r\u00f4le d\u2019arbitre. Son m\u00e9canisme de r\u00e8glement des diff\u00e9rends reste paralys\u00e9, et les grands sommets \u00e9conomiques, comme le G20 de Tokyo pr\u00e9vu en juillet, risquent de tourner \u00e0 l\u2019affrontement entre visions irr\u00e9conciliables.
Conclusion :Le retour du trumpisme \u00e9conomique ne se contente pas de d\u00e9stabiliser la relation sino-am\u00e9ricaine. Il agit comme un r\u00e9v\u00e9lateur \u2013 et un acc\u00e9l\u00e9rateur \u2013 d\u2019une mutation plus large : celle de la fin de la mondialisation telle que nous la connaissions. Si les alliances r\u00e9gionales se multiplient, elles peinent encore \u00e0 dessiner une alternative claire et coh\u00e9rente \u00e0 un syst\u00e8me multilat\u00e9ral en crise. \u00c0 l\u2019heure o\u00f9 les tensions commerciales deviennent des leviers de puissance, une question demeure : qui, demain, \u00e9crira les r\u00e8gles du commerce mondial ?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Surtaxes punitives, menaces contre l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne, paralysie de l\u2019OMC : le second mandat de Donald Trump relance une guerre commerciale 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